"Although considerable uncertainty persists in the short term, given the inflationary context and geopolitical tensions, the real estate market offers solid fundamentals."
Whilst the risks to Europe’s economic prospects are real (geopolitical tensions, high levels of inflation), GDP growth in the euro zone is still expected to be positive in 2023 (+0.8%) and 2024 (+1.2%). However, several indicators suggest that the trend remains fragile, particularly as financial and credit conditions are growing increasingly tight, and monetary and fiscal policies ever stricter. Significant divergences have emerged between countries that are outperforming and those which have gone into a technical recession.
With each successive month, the euro zone Consumer Price Index has confirmed the slowing of inflation. Because of this, it seems reasonable to believe that the ECB’s interest rates are approaching their peak. But we cannot rule out the possibility that July’s additional increase will be followed by further, albeit limited, rises in the coming months. Paradoxically, this could be made even more likely if excessive economic resilience leads central banks to seek to make bigger adjustments to their policy rates. For the time being, the consensus remains that the cycle of rate rises is reaching its end and that inflation will gradually fall back towards 2% over the next few years.
The team
Henry-Aurélien Natter joined Praemia REIM as Research Manager in January 2018. He has the mission of developing the analyses of the Research & Strategy Department on the real estate markets, the economy and capital in France and in Europe.
Henry-Aurélien Natter began his career at Les Echos Etudes (formerly Eurostaf), then at C&W (formerly DTZ), and lastly at BNP PRE, where he acquired solid and varied experience in real estate research, strategy and finance. He is qualified with an AES degree in Business Management, a Masters Decree in management and SME management, and an International Master in commerce and marketing.
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